Tuesday 20 April 2010

Bouncebackability

Well post the initial reaction to the volcano (and the carnage it caused, not least to the travel plans of both Pascoe and Mrs Pascoe), BA shares seem to be exhibiting a surprising resilience. The "glass is half full" part of me says that this is a good thing, and that their statement, made yesterday, regarding the fact that they have cash reserves sufficient to enable them to withstand a more prolonged period of disruption was a positive not only for BA, but for the downstream UK economy as a whole.



The cynic in me however does wonder about how it can be a good thing for any company to be losing £15-20m per day and be relaxed about the long term impact of this. Especially one in as precarious a position as I think BA is right now. Strike related loss of goodwill suddenly risks becoming a much bigger problem once the whole of the country, forced to actually do something about the total lack of air travel, suddenly rediscovers how nice the trains can be when they're working well. So why so relaxed?

i) Quite probably they have to put a brave face on things precisely to avoid their share price taking a battering.

ii) How much is it a situation where they claim 'Force Majeur' over some (if maybe not all) of the cancellations, rebookings etc, in which case the metrics of a grounded fleet become very different. Like I said, cynical......

Nevertheless, looking at a longer term chart I have a feeling some will see value here. Adding volume into the mix definitely makes for interesting viewing. Daily chart looks a screaming buy to me if you were a pure technician (which I most certainly am not). The only question is (and of course, it's the $6m one); is everything currently reflected in the price?

No comments:

Post a Comment